Weatherman
Real money weather trading on Polymarket
AI + 7 forecast sources vs prediction market odds
Updated Feb 26, 8:08 AM EST
Live Portfolio
Open Positions
| Market | Shares | Avg | Now | Cost | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dallas 80-81°F on February 26 · 2026-02-26 | 52 | 28.3¢ | 55.0¢ | $14.73 | +$13.87(+94%) |
Miami 82-83°F on February 27 · 2026-02-27 | 24 | 36.0¢ | 49.5¢ | $8.64 | +$3.24(+37%) |
Miami 78-79°F on February 26 · 2026-02-26 | 21 | 47.0¢ | 58.0¢ | $9.87 | +$2.31(+23%) |
Seattle 50-51°F on February 26 · 2026-02-26 | 46 | 32.0¢ | 36.5¢ | $14.64 | +$2.06(+14%) |
Seattle 52-53°F on February 27 · 2026-02-27 | 28 | 28.0¢ | 34.5¢ | $7.84 | +$1.82(+23%) |
Seattle 48-49°F on February 27 · 2026-02-27 | 40 | 17.0¢ | 18.5¢ | $6.85 | +$0.60(+9%) |
Atlanta 66-67°F on February 27 · 2026-02-27 | 8 | 32.0¢ | 33.0¢ | $2.60 | +$0.08(+3%) |
Atlanta 66-67°F on February 26 · 2026-02-26 | 49 | 25.3¢ | 24.5¢ | $12.45 | -$0.38(-3%) |
Miami 82-83°F on February 28 · 2026-02-28 | 16 | 43.5¢ | 40.0¢ | $6.96 | -$0.56(-8%) |
Atlanta 66-67°F on February 28 · 2026-02-28 | 45 | 16.3¢ | 14.5¢ | $7.35 | -$0.82(-11%) |
Atlanta 60-61°F on February 26 · 2026-02-26 | 71 | 4.0¢ | 2.6¢ | $2.84 | -$0.95(-34%) |
Chicago 40-41°F on February 26 · 2026-02-26 | 29 | 31.0¢ | 14.5¢ | $9.10 | -$4.84(-53%) |
Chicago 36-37°F on February 26 · 2026-02-26 | 361 | 8.4¢ | 0.5¢ | $30.31 | -$28.32(-93%) |
| Total | $134.17 | -$11.90 | |||
Settled
Strategy
7 Data Sources
Tomorrow.io, NOAA, Open-Meteo, NBM, GEM, 143-member ensemble, 5-model agreement
Station Bias Correction
30-day backtest per airport station. Models run cold — auto-corrected.
Kelly Criterion Sizing
Quarter-Kelly position sizing. 75 trades/day max. GTC limit orders.
Automation Schedule
Every 30 min
Live Scanner
Scans all weather markets across 14 cities. Places real orders when edge > 15%. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts + METAR reality check.
Every 15 min
Model Sniper
Watches for GFS, ECMWF, ICON, GEM model releases. Triggers immediate scan when fresh data drops — front-runs the market.
1PM · 2PM · 3PM · 4PM
Intraday Sniper
Reads real-time METAR airport observations. When daily high is confirmed (temp dropping), places high-conviction bets at 50% Kelly.
Every 6 hrs
Strategy Review
Analyzes win/loss patterns. Tunes bias correction, edge thresholds, city weights. Auto-improves the scanner.
Every 30 min
Site Update
Pulls live positions from Polymarket API. Regenerates this page with current P&L. Deploys to Vercel.
Every 1 hr
Auto-Sell Losers
Monitors METAR actuals against open positions. Dumps confirmed dead bets before they settle at $0. Recovers residual value.
⚠️ Experimental. Real money at risk. Not financial advice.